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How much time passes before we understand that the drought hasn’t ended?

In ta’anis (1:5-7) the Mishnayos discuss how and when to fast for rain in a drought, for example: הִגִּיעַ רֹאשׁ חֹדֶשׁ כִּסְלֵו וְלֹא יָרְדוּ גְשָׁמִים, בֵּית דִּין גּוֹזְרִין שָׁלשׁ תַּעֲנִיוֹת ...