See SA OC 108, 8, and specially Mishna Berura sk 23:
Mishna Berura sk 23:
אותו עסק - ואפילו אם העסק הוא מהדברים הנזכרים בסימן רל"ב לאיסור משהגיע זמן תפלה והוא התחיל בעסק זה באיסור כיון שלא ביטל התפלה בשאט נפש אלא היה סבור להתפלל אחר שיגמור העסק ושכח אח"כ:
A man was in at the time of Mincha, but there was a lot of time until the end of Mincha's time. He began an activity forbidden at this hours (e. g. one of the activities enumerated in siman 232, 2, for instance to go to the hairdresser) and he finished this activity early, he has time to pray Mincha, but he forgot. Mishna Berura writes clearly that he is Chayav tashlumim. This case is very close to your question. He began by a peshia, transgressing a seyag derabanan for Mincha, but the real cause of Mincha was an oversight not linked to the previous transgression.
The case described at the end of the question is perhaps more problematic. See the Beur Halacha, BH said that if the consequence is probable, despite the fact that the consequence is one of the enumerated in the אונס, he cannot make tashlumim because he is poshea. (I think for instance that this applies to drunk people, when they know when they start to drink that they probably will be shikor. Although that shikor is Chayav tashlumim, here this man is poshea). Eliahu Rabba says that he is only shogeg and can pray tashlumim. Beur Halacha concluded that he needs to pray tashlumim with a condition: if he is exempt from tashlumim this Tefila will be a nedava.
Thus in the case of a man who stays up late too, and knows that he is unable to stand up at time. this is a safek for tashlumim and he needs to pray tashlumim with a Tnay
