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God promises Abraham a number of times that he would father a great nation whose numbers would be like the stars in the sky or the sand on the beach.
However today there are less than 14 million Jews, hardly close the amount of stars visible with a mediocre telescope, while of course nowhere near the billions of stars in existence.
How do you explain this unfulfilled promise?
Being as numerous as the stars nowadays would in fact be inconsistent with our current state, as in exile we now bear the burden of the terrible curses in Deuteronomy, one of which foretells our nation's size being very few, rather than numerous as the stars. See Deut 28:62.
וְנִשְׁאַרְתֶּם, בִּמְתֵי מְעָט, תַּחַת אֲשֶׁר הֱיִיתֶם, כְּכוֹכְבֵי הַשָּׁמַיִם לָרֹב: כִּי-לֹא שָׁמַעְתָּ, בְּקוֹל יְהוָה אֱלֹהֶיךָ.
And ye shall be left few in number, whereas ye were as the stars of heaven for multitude; because thou didst not hearken unto the voice of the LORD thy God.
It is imagery. The promise was not that there would be exactly as many Israelites as stars. It was that this man without a child would have 'many, many' descendants, as has already been the case in history, and anyway, who knows how many Jews will yet exist in future as well.
The above blessing does not refer to numbers in one generation but to permanence for all time. Chinese are here today but who knows about tomorow. while the promise to avraham is that the Jews will be here forever and ever. This is something only God can guarantee.
Related to this, Mark Twain observed.
”...If statistics are right, the Jews constitute but one percent of the human race. It suggests a nebulous dim puff of stardust lost in the blaze of the Milky way. properly, the Jew ought hardly to be heard of, but he is heard of, has always been heard of. He is as prominent on the planet as any other people, and his commercial importance is extravagantly out of proportion to the smallness of his bulk. His contributions to the world’s list of great names in literature, science, art, music, finance, medicine, and abstruse learning are also away out of proportion to the weakness of his numbers. He has made a marvelous fight in this world, in all the ages; and had done it with his hands tied behind him. He could be vain of himself, and be excused for it.
The Egyptian, the Babylonian, and the Persian rose, filled the planet with sound and splendor, then faded to dream-stuff and passed away; the Greek and the Roman followed; and made a vast noise, and they are gone; other people have sprung up and held their torch high for a time, but it burned out, and they sit in twilight now, or have vanished. The Jew saw them all, beat them all, and is now what he always was, exhibiting no decadence, no infirmities of age, no weakening of his parts, no slowing of his energies, no dulling of his alert and aggressive mind. All things are mortal but the Jew; all other forces pass, but he remains. What is the secret of his immortality?”
- Mark Twain (“Concerning The Jews,” Harper’s Magazine, 1899)
The Bible says in Deut 10:22 (and a few other places as well) that: "Thy fathers went down into Egypt with threescore and ten persons; and now the LORD thy God hath made thee as the stars of heaven for multitude."
This was at the time the Israelites were about 3 million people (by some accounts) after coming out of Egypt. In other words, the Bible considers that this promise was already fulfilled when there were about 3 million Israelites.
Of course, this is a major blow to anyone who insists on a literal interpretation of the Bible..
According to Ralbag (Commentary to Parshas Lech Lecha), the promise was not that Avraham's descendants would be as numerous as the stars. Rather the promise was that they would be hard to count like the stars. Ralbag says this because he was of the opinion that there are actually very few stars (approximately 1,022) and thus a promise to have as many descendants as the stars would be pretty meaningless.
והנה דבר ה' אליו לאמר שכבר יתן לו זרע שיירשנו והוציא אותו החוצה במראה הנבואה להביט בשמים ואמר אליו שכמו שלא יוכל לספור הכוכבים לריבוים כן זרעו יהיה באופן מהריבוי שלא יספרו והנה מספר הכוכבים לא היה נודע בימי אברם ולזה הראהו המדמה בעת הנבואה ענין ריבוי הכוכבים למשל הריבוי המופלג אשר ייעד אותו ה' יתעלה שיהיה בזרעו וכזה תמצא שראה יחזקאל בעת הנבואה שיהיה לגלגלים קולות מצד מה שהיה מאמין מזה הענין כמו שזכר הרב המורה כי לא יחוייב שיהיו אצל הנביא כל הדעות האמיתיות בענין סודות המציאות
In Milchamos Hashem (5:1:52 quoted from manuscript in the Ma'aliot edition of Ralbag Al Hatorah) Ralbag elaborates on this, and he also points out that in Devarim 1:10 Moshe states that the Israelites were at that point like the stars in number. Even though the Israelites had already been counted, the point is that it was difficult to count them.
Therefore, if it is hard to count Avraham's descendants the promise is fulfilled.
I have a better question: Why did God underestimate the numbers? Recall that Abraham did not have a telescope, and thus could only be aware of a few thousand stars. God promised a few thousand, and fulfilled His oath a thousand-fold.
