Are there any statistics as to what percentage of Chabad still believes that their Rebbe is the Messiah? Is it the majority or simply a very vocal minority? Have there been any serious studies made on the issue?
Please note this question seeks statistics not ideology.
Having lived and studied in Crown Heights for several months--before which I believed that a significant proportion of Lubavitchers, perhaps 40% or half, did not believe the Rebbe was Moshiach--I have been surprised to find that the notion that the Rebbe is the presumptive, if not actual Messiah is very dominant in Chabad. Chabad Houses and conferences and other events "for the public" will not give this impression, as Chabad fears quite correctly that it will turn Jews off of Chabad, if not Judaism. But the fact is (or seems to be) that your average Chabad Anash in Crown Heights holds this belief.
Within this, there are varying degrees of subscription to the doctrine as well as vocality about it. While many, many take for granted that the Rebbe was the Nasi HaDor and the Moshiach HaDor, and almost as many would not hesitate to call him the "presumptive" Moshiach, only some are very convinced that he is/was the actual Moshiach, and fewer believe that he never physically died. The latter is, surprisingly, not a "fringe" belief in Chabad. It is a minority belief and not mainstream, but no one would be shocked to hear someone say it. That said, many of the people who subscribe to the belief that the Rebbe is Moshiach are quiet about it, especially among non-Chabad. And even within Lubavitch, there is something of a Don't Ask Don't Tell policy about this matter: although a large group of vocal Yechi elements do not include themselves in such a contract, many people who personally subscribe to the belief that the Rebbe is Moshiach--and especially those who don't--will not go out of their way to bring up the topic, whether with other Chabadniks or in public.
The questioner does not ask why the belief is so widespread. But, as someone who loves Chabad and the Lubavitcher Rebbe, I feel a bit of obligation to explain. (For more, please see Menachem Posner's answer to this questioner--I think it's very good.) The Rebbe was by any standard a great tzaddik. His genuine wisdom is immediately perceptible from his talks and writings. His words and actions motivated a worldwide movement to connect Jews with Torah, to assist Jews b'gashmius and b'ruchnius, and in many ways to unite am Yisrael. He indeed performed miracles, in the sense that miracles tend emerge from systematically positive action, speech, and thought. He was personally righteous, and there is no doubt that he brought about a new tradition for righteousness in the world.
Many Chabadniks who were zoche to meet the Lubavitcher Rebbe have family traditions of very meaningful encounters with the Rebbe, of good advice and miracles, and these stories--combined inevitably with cognitive biases, including that bias called love--sometimes produce the belief that the Rebbe is more than human. Whether or not this is correct is a separate matter. The Lubavitchers no longer have a living Rebbe; the Rebbe they did have was great and beloved; and these facts combined produce a yearning toward the past that is perhaps, after all, not totally out of place in Judaism.
So as much as the "official" policy where Chabad interacts with the world is to downplay this part of Chabad belief, when Chabad are safely within their own circles, it emerges with ardency and ardor. The curriculum in the in-town schools is very, very focused on the idea of "Moshiach," with or without explicit connection to the Rebbe. Discussions, blessings, and interactions between Chabadniks are similarly concentrated on "Moshiach" and the Ge'ulah. If one desires a statistical study, one has merely to count the number of "Yechi" kippot on the street in Crown Heights. (Lots; in 770 at least half. And these are the people who actively and vocally endorse the Rebbe as Moshiach.) In short, the idea that the Rebbe is Moshiach is not a secondary belief in Chabad. But it is perhaps worth asking whether this is belief is truly wicked, or simply the inevitable result of memory, grief, and longing.
I want to add, after further reflection, that it is the way of Chasidim not to believe things that it would be seriously grieving to believe. Some examples are the Holocaust and the Rebbe's histalkus and that Moshiach isn't here yet. I posit that self-deception, although not in fashion now, is actually a powerful psychological tool, and perhaps the only one by which one can survive.
For what its worth. I corresponded a while ago (through the official chabad website) with regards to the issue of the Rebbe being moshiach and the proliferation of this ideology within chabad. The responses I received were as follows:
No, the official Chabad officials do not hold that the Rebbe is Moshiach.
There is no underground movement which unoffficially permits for statements to the contrary to be made. I'm not sure why there is a proliferation of such beliefs in some parts of Israel. In North and South America, Russia and Europe that is not the case be that as it may, it is individuals not the official stance of the movement.
The Rebbe not only did not want anyone to perpetuate the idea that he is Moshiach openly as you said, but he didn't want the idea to be perpetuated at all, period.
Along with the other mitzvahs and mitzvah campaigns which he initiated the Rebbe encouraged us to spread the word that Moshiach is coming, he did not say 'tell the world I'm am Moshiach'…
And another related response from Rabbi Menahem Posner:
a. I do not believe that the Rebbe ever said he would be Moshiach after his death. Rather, the belief seemed to evolve as follows: More than anything in the world, the Rebbe wanted Moshiach to come. He constantly spoke about his arrival and worked tirelessly to bring Jewry to a state where they would merit his arrival.
It was not a huge leap for some people to connect the dots and assume that the Rebbe himself would one day be Moshiach.
After his passing in 1994, people were at loss regarding how to continue. They just were not ready to say goodbye to the Rebbe and to his vision of Moshiach’s imminent arrival (and rightfully so). Different people reacted in different ways.
Many Chassidim saw their mission to continue the Rebbe’s work of spreading Judaism wherever possible as their response to the loss which we and world Judaism had suffered. Others continued to refer to him as Moshiach as a way of expressing their conviction that he and his message live on.
This well-intentioned, but misguided, response is the root of what you sometimes see today.
Some of the Rebbe's works were edited and others were not. I am not aware of him editing and approving a work with "melech hamoshiach" appended to his name. My assumption is that this was added afterward by Mishichist elements.
The Rebbe did indeed speak about prophecy in our time prior to the advent of Moshiach in the sicha that you reference...
To the best of my knowledge no such study has been done within Chabad chassidim... and even though in general we say 'Ein lo ra-inu ra-aya' (Zevachim 12:4, "'We have not seen' is not a proof"), controversial studies/statistics the likes of this would surely have spread very quickly with very loud responses.
Chabad published a sefer subscribing to this belief.
About 10 of the most prominent chabad Roshei yeshiva are on the editorial board and 20 of their superiors have endorsed it. What better statistics can you get? The name of the sefer is "Hatekufa Vihageula", first edition 1999 second edition 2005 (link).
Nathan Shlomo Valdez, who holds a degree in Judaic studies and is a writer, says: 'The belief that Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson is the Messiah or will be the Messiah is in fact mainstream amongst Chabad-Lubavitcher Chasidim.
The majority of them are not public about it, but when pressed they will say “he could have been” or he “might be” or they say “there are opinions that say the messiah comes after the ressurection of the dead”. According to this rabbi's experience, then, the majority of the Lubavitchers hold this opinion.
Yes, most of Chabad does believe the Rebbe is Moshiach and that he is alive with us, the difference there, is whether physical or just spiritually.
And, no, no real polls were done - and therefor no statistics exist.
P.S. If there was, it would definitely spread like wildfire.
