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There is a tradition - or whatever you may call it - not to tell people about your pregnancy early on.

First off, is there a Torah basis to it? Or just common sense? (if things go wrong people will still say Mazal Tov...)

Secondly, when someone asks "are you pregnant?" or "is your wife pregnant?", is OK to lie and say NO??

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The gemara (Nidda 8b and elsewhere) mentions that a woman's pregnancy is not visible to others until three months have elapsed: וכמה הכרת העובר? סומכוס אומר משום רבי מאיר: שלשה חדשים, ואע"פ שאין ראיה לדבר זכר לדבר, שנאמר ויהי כמשלש חדשים. –  Fred Oct 1 '13 at 1:01
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2 Answers

Here is an excerpt from Kovetz Minhagim, An Anthology of Chabad Lubavitch customs regarding pregnancy, childbirth, circumcision, redemption of the firstborn, and the birth of girl:

It is the custom of chassidim who are careful to conduct their lifestyles according to the practices of old that they conceal their wives' pregnancies until they have entered the fifth month. Undoubtedly, this practice has an inner foundation. Of course, the precaution is about publicizing the pregnancy. It does not apply to divulging it to very close relatives without broadcasting it.

See there for sources in the footnote. Of interest is footnote 3, which quotes a letter of the Previous Lubavitcher Rebbe:

"The accepted practice is that until three months of pregnancy it is concealed even from very close relatives..."

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see above. This is certainly neither uniquely Chabad nor uniquely Jewish. –  Charles Koppelman Sep 30 '13 at 19:57
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@CharlesKoppelman: The question is asking for a jewish source, which I offered –  Menachem Sep 30 '13 at 20:39
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@Menachem No, it's asking for a Torah basis. –  Double AA Oct 1 '13 at 0:51
    
@DoubleAA: do you feel my answer doesn't qualify? –  Menachem Oct 1 '13 at 1:06
    
Not really. What is the basis? –  Double AA Oct 1 '13 at 2:06
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This custom is much wider than the Jewish world.

Most women do not widely publicize their pregnancies until the third month because the rate of, G-d-forbid, miscarriage drops significantly at week 12. By month 5, women start to show, so it becomes nearly impossible to keep it a secret.

However, my wife would ream me out my if I ever lied as a response to that question. (She would say that I should have changed the conversation topic.) She'd say that saying "no" is basically telling the ayin hara you don't want it.

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I didn't realize the ayin hara was an independent entity. Am I wrong, or did you perhaps mean sitra achra or some such? –  Fred Oct 1 '13 at 1:56
    
@Fred I'm quoting my wife who likes to speak in Yiddish superstition. She also might say "telling G-d you don't want it". –  Charles Koppelman Oct 1 '13 at 5:42
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